Pritzker applauds progress on 'doubling rate'
Governor talking with Midwest counterparts on ‘what comes next,’ sets three goals: test, trace, and treat
Gov. Pritzker sees clear signs of progress in limiting the spread of the coronavirus. (Illinois.gov)
By Ted Cox
Gov. Pritzker praised progress in the “doubling rate” reflecting the spread of COVID-19 at his daily coronavirus briefing Tuesday at the Thompson Center in Chicago.
Pritzker and Illinois Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike have been tracking the doubling rate on COVID-19 cases and deaths, looking for it to slow to indicate the coronavirus is not spreading exponentially, as it did at the beginning of the Illinois outbreak, and as it has elsewhere globally.
Even as the state reported 1,222 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday and another 74 deaths, the same as reported the day before, both saw cause for optimism in the way those figures had leveled out over the last week. The state now has confirmed 23,247 cases, with 868 deaths attributed to COVID-19.
The governor cited how it took just two days for statewide cases to double on March 22, but that was extended to 3.6 days on April 1 and 8.2 days on Sunday. Deaths, meanwhile, were taking 2.5 days to double on April 1, but that’s now risen to 5.5 days.
“The higher that number is, the slower your growth, which means the flatter your curve” tracing the rate of infection, Pritzker said. “To be clear, there is nothing good about twice as many people having this virus or, worse, dying from it, no matter how long the increase takes. But we won’t get to zero cases overnight.” He called the longer periods for the doubling rate a “clear demonstration that there is deceleration of virus transmission. We are in fact bending the curve.”
Pritzker said that, thus far, the state hospital capacity has been up to the challenge of treating COVID-19 patients, which has been the entire point of “flattening the curve” so that a surge in patients doesn’t overwhelm hospitals. “These numbers are indicators of our growing ability to manage capacity within the health-care systems across Illinois,” he said. "We need to stay the course for our efforts to remain effective. I will do what’s best to safeguard the health and safety of Illinois’s residents.”
Pritzker pointed out that, thanks to an increased number of overall hospital beds, as well as beds in Intensive Care Units and ventilators, the percentage of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, as well as the percentage of ventilators in use by those patients, had both declined statewide in recent days. “I think of those numbers as evidence of positive trends,” he said.
Pritzker said hospitals statewide are doing “a great job” balancing coronavirus patients between them. But he cautioned state residents not to believe the crisis is over. While more than half of local ICU beds are currently available in Rockford, Springfield, Marion, and the northwest suburbs of Chicago, only 1-in-6 ICU beds is available in the southwest suburbs, just under a quarter in Chicago, and just over a quarter in the northeast and west suburbs.
“Folks, this curve may not flatten,” Pritzker warned, “and it may go up again if we don’t adhere to the stay-at-home order. We need to stay the course for now for our efforts to truly remain effective.”
Ezike said she was “almost grateful for seeing snowflakes,” in the Chicago area on Tuesday, to discourage people from going outside.
As pockets of states in the Northeast and on the West Coast organized to coordinate a slow relaxation of restrictions and a reopening of their economies, Pritzker said he was talking with his neighboring Midwestern governors to do the same. He said they are in agreement that they need to develop widespread testing, trace contacts associated with positive cases, and receive word from health experts on a confirmed course of treatment for the disease as preconditions for relaxing stay-at-home orders. He also said it was necessary that all citizens have access to personal protective equipment, or PPE, meaning masks and sanitizers and such.
“Governors that I’ve spoken with have been frankly very positive about this idea,” he said. “They’ve all been thinking about it individually for their states, and they understand that speaking with a common voice might be a positive move.” He added that they’re trying to reach a consensus on “what comes next.”
A day after President Trump insisted at a White House briefing that he is the one in charge of declaring states open to resuming activities, Pritzker said Trump is not part of the equation in Illinois. “No matter what the president may say, I will do what's best to safeguard the health and safety of Illinois residents,” he added. “That means test, trace, and treat.”
Pritzker again called for mail balloting to be made available to all voters ahead of the general election in the fall. “Things may not be completely back to normal by November,” he said, “because there may not be a vaccine available.” Without a vaccine, he emphasized, all people are susceptible to the virus and in danger of contracting it.
The governor said he’d be talking about the effect the pandemic has had on the state finances, and ways to remedy that, later this week, adding for now that “no one should mistake the fact that this is going to be a very, very difficult fiscal financial challenge for the state of Illinois.”