Fair tax polls ahead of required 60 percent supermajority
Annual Simon Poll also finds support for millionaire tax, fair maps
Gov. Pritzker gives his annual budget address last month in Springfield. (Illinois.gov)
By Ted Cox
Gov. Pritzker’s proposal for Illinois to adopt a graduated income tax is polling ahead of the 60 percent supermajority required to change the state constitution, according to a well-respected survey conducted annually by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
The annual Simon Poll, as it’s commonly known, found almost two-thirds of the 1,000 registered Illinois voters surveyed, 65 percent, in favor of a progressive income tax, which Pritzker has labeled the “fair tax.”
“Support was robust,” according to the institute, with 44 percent strongly favoring a graduated income tax and an additional 21 percent somewhat favoring it. A majority favored it in all geographic breakdowns, with 73 percent of Chicagoans, 68 percent of suburbanites, and 55 percent of all other Illinoisans in favor.
Democrats doubled the support level among Republicans, with 83 percent of Dems and 41 percent of the GOP in favor. A majority of self-declared independents also supported the fair tax, although at 59 percent just under the 60 percent supermajority required in a statewide referendum to change the state constitution.
The General Assembly passed the proposed fair tax last year, along with tax brackets set so that 97 percent of Illinois taxpayers pay the same or less as under the current 4.95 percent flat tax. Only the top 3 percent of earners making more than $250,000 will pay more, and that at top rates below the top brackets in Iowa and Minnesota.
But it still needs to pass a statewide referendum as part of the November general election with a 60 percent supermajority to amend the Illinois constitution. The poll found almost a third, 32 percent, of statewide voters opposed, and special-interest groups — mostly Republican anti-taxers — have been trying to grow that opposition while using it as a campaign issue. Support for a graduated income tax was actually down slightly from 67 percent a year ago.
Yet a millionaire tax of 3 percent on all income above $1 million proved even more popular among respondents, polling with 68 percent support, again across all geographic areas: 72 percent in Chicago, 69 percent in the suburbs, and 63 percent elsewhere in Illinois. Some 84 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of independents supported it, and even Republicans were only narrowly opposed, with 48 percent in favor and 50 percent against.
The institute pointed out that a proposed millionaire tax passed a statewide advisory referendum in 2014 with 60 percent support.
The poll found strong support for “legislative district maps created and recommended by a commission that is independent of the elected representatives.” Almost two-thirds, 64 percent, were in favor, with just 22 percent opposed, and there were majorities in support in all geographic areas and across the political spectrum, with 67 percent of Chicagoans, 66 percent of suburbanites, and 58 percent of other Illinoisans in favor, as were 68 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of independents, and 60 percent of Republicans.
“The proposal for redistricting by an independent commission is now quite popular, as it has been in all of our earlier Simon polls,” said John Jackson, one of the poll directors. “There seems to be a very active grassroots movement supporting a change, and this year there is an unusual number of legislators from both parties who have signed on.”
Legislative maps are slated to be redrawn after the 2020 U.S. Census, and under the current system Democrats, in charge of the Governor’s Mansion, will lead the process. Critics of the proposal have pointed out that gerrymandering is widespread across the nation, and most states are in Republican control, so that it makes little sense for Illinois Democrats to give up their advantage, and that national legislation is necessary to prevent gerrymandered districts. Chicago Tribune columnist Eric Zorn has also floated the idea of trading off states in pairs — Republican and Democrat — in adopting fair maps.
With corruption a continuing concern in Springfield on both sides of the aisle, the poll found overwhelming support for ending the “revolving door” in which legislators leave office only to immediately become lobbyists. Some 85 percent of respondents favored a one-year hiatus for former legislators to become lobbyists, with just 11 percent opposed, and an additional 61 percent favored a ban on state legislators serving as local lobbyists, with 33 percent opposed. According to the institute, those majorities applied across all political affiliations.
A “bare majority” of 51 percent favored amending the state constitution to allow pension benefits to be reduced, well below the 60 percent that would be required. Pritzker has resisted such a move, pointing out that courts have repeatedly ruled that pension deals are a “promise” that must be kept by the state. Some 55 percent of Chicagoans and 51 percent of suburbanites were in favor, as was a plurality of 48 percent of other Illinoisans. That breakdown reflects the results of a new study by the National Institute on Retirement Security, which found that state pension benefits have an unusually large impact on the economy in rural areas, as there’s a higher concentration of government workers there than in larger cities.